Thursday, 1 December 2022
For nearly two decades, IBM Consulting has helped power SingHealth’s digital transformation
Thursday, 15 July 2021
NanoDx licenses IBM CMOS-compatible nanosensors for rapid COVID-19 testing tech
Rapid but accurate low-cost testing could play an essential role in containing pandemics.
NanoDx’s goal is to create accurate, rapid and low-cost handheld diagnostic devices that would be available to consumers for at-home testing.
Monday, 5 April 2021
IBM researchers use epidemiology to find the best lockdown duration
We finally have vaccines, but prevention strategies and mitigation of spread of the virus will stay for the foreseeable future, in the form of lockdowns. While effective for helping to deal with disease spread, the duration of lockdowns during the current pandemic has been typically chosen through empirical observation of symptoms.
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But is it the best way?
Our team at IBM Research, in collaboration with the team of Dr. Ira Schwartz at the US Naval Research Laboratory, aims to provide an arguably more accurate approach to the optimal duration of lockdowns, based an epidemiology theory.
In a recent paper Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks published in PLoS One, we describe a new technique to calculate the optimal duration of a periodic lockdown during an outbreak of an infectious disease where there is no cure or vaccine. Our findings are different from the lockdown durations widely applied during COVID-19.
Using an epidemiological model and a new mathematical formulation, we’ve assessed the optimal duration of a lockdown to help minimize the spread of the virus — and found that it can vary between 10 and 20 days rather than the inflexible and imprecise current protocol of two weeks.
The rationale of the 14 day duration
During the current pandemic, nations often have imposed lockdowns based on the time it takes for symptoms to appear. This is estimated to be, at most, two weeks. The lockdown would then be periodically reassessed.
However, our findings are different.
We show that an optimal, data-driven way to help control an epidemic is by closing businesses, schools, and other public meeting places for a period roughly equal to two to four times the mean incubation period, or between 10 and 20 days, based on measurable local health factors. After that time, these places can be reopened for about the same period, until the outbreak is controlled and the disease is eradicated.
Importantly, this period depends on the so-called disease reproductive number, or R0, a measure of the potential of the disease to spread in a population. When R0 is larger than 1, the disease spreads and triggers an outbreak. When R0 is smaller than 1, the disease dies out after having been put under control.
We’ve found that the higher the value of R0, the longer the lockdown needs to be to curb the spread, and vice-versa. We’ve also found that when the reproductive number exceeds a certain threshold, the spread cannot be controlled by periodic lockdowns. This observation, which has never been suggested until now, may have important consequences not only for the current COVID-19 pandemic, but also for the next one, whenever it may happen.
“Control theory” for lockdowns
Not much work has been devoted to the lockdown duration until now. Some recent papers have suggested strategies for lockdowns, but they were mostly computational in nature. Our work, on the other hand, introduces a mathematical framework based on the theory of epidemiology for the assessment of the effect of lockdowns. As such, its application is general and can be used not only for COVID-19, but for any disease for which a periodic shutdown may be necessary to contain and slow community spread.
We used a mathematical approach called control theory, widely used in engineering (for example, for the design of aircrafts and ships), biology and artificial intelligence. We assume that the incidence of the disease — the number of infectious cases per day — is something that can be ‘controlled’ using periodic lockdowns as ‘controllers.’ We then determine the conditions a lockdown needs to meet for the total incidence to be minimized over the course of the outbreak.Paired with a predictive model, like the one used in IBM Watson Works’ Return to Work Advisor that mixes rigorous epidemiological theory with AI, we believe that our research results can potentially make a difference between a large outbreak and a small one.
It’s clear that to control an outbreak of an infectious disease when there are no vaccinations or treatments, breaking contact is a must. We hope that our work will help to further reduce the contact rate and pave the way to determining an optimal cycle of lockdowns when the next pandemic hits.
Source: ibm.com
Saturday, 25 April 2020
The COVID-19 crisis reinforces the need for these supply chain methods
IBM has been involved with more than 7,000 successful supply chain deployments around the globe spanning every major industry. Based on what we have learned, here are some suggestions for making your supply chains resilient.
1. Manage the ABCs: Many of us use ABC analysis to classify inventory items so we can work out ways to manage “A” items more aggressively to drive down overall inventory. “A” items account for the highest value over a period of time to your organization, with “B” and “C” items stepping down in relative value. Typically, organizations maintain low inventory and low risk of stockout by closely managing A items, while carrying higher amounts of B and C items to keep workloads down and provide high customer service.
A properly implemented strategy for B and C items will make it easier to respond when events disrupt the supply chain. If you can count on having plenty of B and C items, which aren’t as costly and represent typically 80% to 95% of your overall part numbers, then staff that is stretched thin during times of crisis can focus on solving supply problems for A items – a much smaller number of items. This allows you to keep your overall inventory under good control and deliver on more customer promises, even when the supply chain is impacted by an event.
2. Leverage analytics for shortage analysis: Most of us have seen a supply-versus-demand stockout. But many organizations have never built this simple analysis into a full report for real-time shortage visibility. Supply chain analytics can quickly help you identify precisely which items require the most urgent attention, which items are expected to run out one or two weeks from now, and so on. When you move into crisis mode, it’s critical that you’re able to identify items at risk of stockout so you can take early action.
Adding two relatively simple analytics to the standard supply-demand analysis can create a report that provides the insights you need. Those analytics include the ability to set up the report so that you can sort by first shortage date and, also, so you can either include or exclude inbound materials on order. This allows you to do two things:
◉ Identify the first instance of shortage. That way, the earliest problem items—where demand will exceed supply—rise to the top of the report.
◉ By including or excluding items with purchase orders, you can identify what action is needed. Items with planned deliveries may need to be expedited, or have deliveries confirmed so you can be confident that supplies will really arrive as scheduled. You’ll need to place new orders for other items as needed.
3. Use AI to manage supply chain disruptions: We all talk about being “less reactive and more proactive.” But, in fact, the best tools for managing supply chain disruptions are a combination of (i) tools that detect events faster and allow us to react faster for better outcomes; and (ii) tools that help us anticipate where and when supply chain disruptions are more likely so we can proactively get ahead of them. Both require the assistance of AI.
Let me provide an example. A big electronics manufacturer was hampered by limited visibility into supply planning and time-consuming manual processes. And so, the company was often missing opportunities to make timely decisions and mitigate disruptions. Deliveries would already be late or the options available would be limited and more expensive.
Using IBM Sterling Supply Chain through the Fast Start program, in just six weeks the manufacturer discovered how to automatically correlate supply and carrier data. This includes Advanced Ship Notifications and shipment status updates for greater and faster visibility into inbound logistics. The company also began to use AI to proactively search for and use information about external events that could impact their supply chain, tapping into weather updates, social media, news reports, and customs and border reports.
Empowering its people with real-time insights to make more informed decisions faster, that manufacturer can now deliver better outcomes when delays happen. They can even anticipate where and when disruptions may occur to turn them into opportunities.
Disruptions are inevitable, but good supply-chain practices help ensure that businesses are better prepared. That way, they’re able to navigate disruptions today and adapt to changing markets and business dynamics in the future.